If humanity continues to burn fossil fuels at a current pace, then in the next century, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere may reach a critical point at which stratocumulus clouds will become unstable and disappear. This event will entail a surge of global warming with an increase in surface temperature up to 8 degrees worldwide and up to 10 degrees in the subtropics.
The results show that with climate change there are dangerous thresholds, which we did not even suspect. I hope that technological transformations will still lead to a reduction in carbon emissions, and we will not reach a critical point.
-Tapio Schneider, lead author of a study at the California Institute of Technology (USA)
Cumulus clouds cover 20% of the oceans at low latitudes and are especially common in the subtropics. They shade and cool the surface of the Earth, reflecting sunlight back into space, which makes cloud layers an important link in regulating the temperature on our planet. However, due to the fact that the turbulent air currents that carry these clouds are too small, their response to warming remained uncertain in global climate models.
To solve this problem, researchers have created a small-scale model, covering a typical part of the atmosphere above the subtropical ocean, simulating the clouds and their rapid movement above it. As a result, with an increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere to 1200 ppm (today this figure is 3 times lower, but continues to grow), scientists have observed the instability of cloud layers, their decay and the subsequent surge in global warming. Reach a critical mark, note climatologists, humanity may already in the next century.
In addition, the researchers found that after the disappearance of the clouds, they did not appear until the concentration of carbon dioxide fell to a level significantly lower than the one at which instability occurred.
The study can also help solve a long-standing puzzle in paleoclimatology (the science of the history of the Earth’s climate change). Geological data show that during the Eocene epoch (about 50 million years ago), the temperature on our planet was on average 12 degrees higher than now, palm trees grew in the Arctic and crocodiles lived.
However, according to the existing climate models, to heat the Earth to such a level, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had to be about 4,000 ppm, which is more than two times higher than the estimated estimates. However, a surge in global warming caused by the loss of the cloud layer could explain the climate of the Eocene.
The study showed a gap in existing global climate models. Therefore, we need to use tools to combine real-world observation and machine learning in order to create more accurate models that will include clouds and other important small-scale structures.
-Tapio Schneider
Disappearance of clouds and a sharp global warming predictions
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